The Swiss economy has so far managed to maintain its growth trend, despite the strong franc, thanks to the positive impulse from the global economy. Seco expects exports to decline because of the strong franc, however. Overall economic growth seems likely to cool down. The federal group of experts forecasts a 2.1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011, slackening to 1.9% in 2012. According to Seco, global economic prospects are clouded over by numerous risks, including the over-indebtedness of many countries and the recent catastrophe in Japan. There is a high level of uncertainty – which probably also explains the variances in the experts' forecasts.

Rosy short-term economic prospects

The global business economy has been growing at a lively pace so far. The stuttering USA economic engine seems to have found new fuel, brightening global economic prospects in the short term. In the euro area, the moderate recovery is still on track despite the smouldering sovereign debt crisis. On the other hand, the economic growth momentum is high in many emerging economies.

Global growth momentum may soon decline

Several factors may dampen improved short-term global economic trends. Political pressure for financial consolidation measures is increasing in many countries and may slow down the economy. Another problem is the real estate crisis which has yet to be overcome in many places. This depresses private consumption, especially in the US, which is why America cannot be an economic locomotive over the longer time frame. The spiralling oil and commodity prices are also sure to strain global economic trends. Moreover, high-growth emerging countries face considerable inflationary risks; these call for increasingly restrictive economic policy measures which act as a brake on the economy.

Exports to curb the Swiss economy

In Switzerland, the economic picture is quite rosy. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the Swiss economy registered broad-based growth at a comparatively higher rate than the European average. The latest economic indicators are also positive. Corporate surveys and consumer polls show no sign of any weakening. Despite the difficult environment (over-valued franc against the euro and other currencies), Swiss exports recorded solid growth. According to the experts, it would be premature to conclude from the robust growth in exports that the strong franc is not a problem. The adverse exchange rate effects are still concealed by good global economic trends. But the strong franc is expected to brake the growth in exports over the rest of the year. Conversely, domestically-oriented industries are facing growing competition from imports. Foreign trade is therefore expected to have a slowdown effect on the Swiss economy as a whole.